Running the GOP Numbers

The race for the Republican nomination for President is still in the embryonic stages, and, as is always the case with politics, things can change overnight.  Still, there are some very interesting (telling?) numbers to consider even this early in the process.

There have been three selective “events,” one set of caucuses (Iowa) and two primaries (New Hampshire and South Carolina).  Sixty-two percent (62%) of the votes cast thus far were cast in South Carolina (601,166 of 971,142).  Of the total, Mitt Romney has captured about 30% and Newt Gingrich 29%.  A dead heat in votes cast.  Gingrich, however, holds a 23-19 lead in delegates thus far.  Rick Santorum  13 (say “thank you” to Iowa, Rick) and Ron Paul, 3 (all from New Hampshire).

Newt Gingrich received more than twice as many votes in South Carolina as were cast in Iowa (243,153/121,501) and came within 5,400 (2%) as there were in New Hampshire (248,485).  That kinda puts into question the viability of the Iowa Caucuses as a significant event in the nomination.

But wait… In 2008, nearly two million Floridians voted for six major primary contenders.  Mitt Romney finished second to John McCain with more votes than all those balloted in South Carolina this year (604,932).

The latest polls indicate a virtual tie in Florida between Romney and Gingrich, with Romney holding a razor-thin 2.6% lead.  But that may be all he needs.  Florida is a winner-take-all primary state with 50 delegates up for grabs.  That’s 45% of the total chosen by the time polls close in the panhandle.  If Romney does, indeed, win, he will hold 61% of the delegates to that point.  Should Gingrich pull it off, he’ll own 65%.

By the end of Super Tuesday on 6 March, 820 (72%) of the needed 1144 delegates needed to nominate will have been selected, 466 of them on that date alone.  By the end of March, nearly 1200 delegates – more than half the total – will have been chosen.

So, what does all this arithmetic mean?  It means Rick Santorum and Ron Paul have just a few weeks left in their campaigns.  Just after Christmas, I anticipated …

In April, Texas (155 votes), Pennsylvania (72) and New York (95) will pile up a lot of delegates for Romney, but Gingrich will collect enough to become a force at the convention.  Ron Paul will also continue to gather votes, but at a slowing pace.

Keep in mind that except for Florida, none of the big vote states have a flat winner-take-all (WTA) process.  Most of the WTA states are on the condition that the candidate gets more that 50% of the total vote.  It is this condition that will keep Gingrich’s campaign going and deny Romney the de facto nomination prior to the convention.  That is unless circumstances (finances, revelations, etc.) cause Newt and/or Paul to suspend their campaigns.

The other significance is in the numbers with a dollar sign.  At the end of September, four long months ago (and the most recent figures available), Mitt Romney had raised ten times the funds than had Newt Gingrich – $32 million to $3 million.  As significant as that advantage would seem to be, that money did not get him a win in either Iowa or South Carolina.  In fact, Romney finished closer to third in the Palmetto State than he did to first.

As a result of his surge, Gingrich can count on collecting both more donors and more money from those he already has.  Endorsements from Rick Perry and Fred Thompson will help as will the tacit promotion from Sarah Palin.

Though it’s still early, winning while being outspent may be a signal that the Gingrich campaign is gonna defy predictions, no matter what numbers are thrown around.  That may be bad news for Mitt Romney and Barack Obama.

Sir Issac Newton said “It is the weight, not numbers of experiments that is to be regarded.“  To paraphrase, ultimately “It is the weight, not numbers of a campaign that is to be regarded.”