A poll published on Real Clear Politics last month put the top three South Carolina Republican gubernatorial prospects as State Attorney General Henry McMaster and Lt. Governor Andre Bauer (both at 22%) and State Representative Nikki Haley (13%). 
The poll is only moderately revealing, especially so far in advance of the June primary, but, still, there are grains of sooth for which I will serve as sayer.
First, the big name NOT on the list is Congressman Gresham “Deep Pockets” Barrett who came in 4th with 9%. The fact that Haley has surpassed Barrett is remarkable. In this case, having done so with five months to go before the primary suggests she is a far more formidable candidate than initially anticipated.
In March, 2009 the Barrett campaign commissioned a poll by Ayres, McHenry and Associates of Alexandria, Virginia just a few days before the congressman announced his candidacy.
According to that poll of 500 likely primary voters, Bauer garnered 25% of the respondents’ votes, McMaster 22% and Barrett 21%.
OK, different polls, different pollsters, etc. Still, that Haley has established herself as a force in this race is telling. I mean, McMaster and Bauer don’t seem to have advanced and Barrett has retreated.
Given that she’s just a woman yet relatively close in the running.is a pretty striking accomplishment, especially since she leapfrogged a congressman to do so.
Still, Rep. Barrett has a huge pot o’cash and he doesn’t have anything else to do with it but use it to run for governor. His only real move at this point is to focus on McMaster and Bauer, the two candidates who, for the time being, are the ones he has to outspend.
But when the boys have spent their respective wads … of cash, and look up from the dust of a hard Spring of campaigning, methinks they’re gonna see Nikki Haley still standing and running in full stride – heels notwithstanding.
Seasoned South Carolina politicos with whom I’ve spoken and corresponded are now convinced that the primary will get down to Haley and McMaster. McMaster will be so positioned because of the establishment backing he’ll be getting, aided by stacks of money from traditional power brokers looking to maintain the status quo in the state. Haley will get there with key endorsements, a populist, grass roots following and a personal charisma and presence.
If, indeed, that’s to be the case, the debate between Nikki Haley and Henry McMaster will be the political and entertainment highlight of 2010 in South Carolina.
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If the last poll is accurate and if Haley gets most of (former candidate) Grooms’ supporters, it will put her near 19% herself at this point, barely behind the c. 22% of Bauer and McMastah and with about 27% or so up for grabs (not counting the loss of some supporters by the good ol’ boys).
I agree that Barrett will probably stay in the race and chew it out with Bauer and McMastah as you say. If nothing else, the big three good ol’ boys are going to be splitting the establishment vote three ways leaving Nikki ahead of at least two of them.
It sounds scary for a grassroots human candidate in the primary going head-to-head against the Rick Quinn Industries model “Good Ol’ Boy UNIT 1A” but I suspect the more folks hear the pre-recorded meanderings of the McUnit , the better his opposition will sound.
However, if we were to gauge solely from the current momentum observed so far, theoretically Nikki may win it outright with 51%+ with no need for a primary. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. I’ve seen far more surprising events in politics.
I’ve only met one other candidate this year besides Nikki Haley that I can talk to and know that he’s really listening to me. Nikki is that way and has always been that way. I’ve noticed that everyone I’ve seen who has met and talked to her in person comes away knowing that she is earnest and concerned.
I’ve talked to people from near where she grew up and they report that everyone who has known her back in school has stated that they could always sense that she was bound for great things. She has always been a go-getter.
We are now awakening as a state and a country to the knowledge that what we need in elected offices now ARE go-getters willing to work and to sacrifice during their terms of office. Nikki Haley will do it but she needs our help at the grassroots level.
This is still the ground floor for getting in there and helping her out. Donations of time and money now are, by factors of ten, more significant than last minute attempts to help.
Make it count.
Go to her website and make a real and positive difference in fighting the corruption in our state. We are at a turning point now: corruption as usual–or Nikki Haley fighting for us as governor.
You can empower YOURSELF and us all by making the right decision early on whom to support. THIS is the time.
http://www.nikkihaley.com/
DISCLAIMER: I have donated to Nikki Haley’s campaign but I hold no position with them and do not report to, nor take orders from, anyone associated with it. I am just another citizen activist who wants what is best for our state and our country.
Er, that should have been “no need for a primary RUNOFF.”
I expect McMaster to use odumu (Chicago) politics and tie Haley to Sanford ala McCain to Bush. The dimocrats will use the same tactic and the kool aid drinkers will buy into it.
Would you buy a used car from McMaster?