The Republican Party – and Governor Sarah Palin – need to put aside any ideas of running her for President in 2012.  Not only would it be politically suicidal for her, but for the Conservative movement within the GOP as well.

Barring some HUGE catastrophe between his inauguration next month and the 2012 election cycle, President Obama will run for re-election – and win.  Joe Biden will not be his running mate, but rather another candidate selected by the Democratic Party apparatchiks (as was Obama).  This new VP will be someone the Party wants to groom to succeed Obama smoothly, avoiding a divisive primary season for the 2016 election.

The Press will, once again, shill for the Democrats in 2012.  With that support and the incumbency on his side, Obama will win handily.  The Republicans will need to provide token opposition, and that’s where the better part of the strategy needs to be concentrated.

In 2012, the Republican Party needs to put at the top of the national ticket someone who is expendable – disposable, even.  And someone who is NOT tightly associated with the future of the party.  That future is – must be – a return to Reagan Conservatism.  If a candidate runs on a solid Reagan platform in 2012, (s)he will lose and the integrity of the platform will go down as well, contaminated by the loss and rejected by the electorate.

If Palin is run in 2012, she will be marginalized by certain defeat and with her goes the Conservative foundation the Party will need to regain control.

Rather, run Romney or Giuliani at the top and put in the Veep slot someone who IS a strong Reagan Conservative.  (S)he would get national campaign experience, collect IOU’s within the party, start up the necessary fund-raising network and establish personal bona fides.  That person will then be in position to carry the banner in 2016 with a strong Conservative underpinning and national following.  Running Palin (again) as a VP candidate won’t work.  File it under “Been-There-Done-That.”

In the meantime, The GOP needs to work the states for solid Conservative candidates for the House, Senate and Governorships.  Build the political infrastructure by attacking those demographics that will be susceptible once Obama’s policies start affecting people.  Next year – 2009 – start the campaign to punch holes in the Democrat’s lines in the 2010 off year election.  Put every Obama initiative in the contrast of liberal versus conservative with the Republicans solidly on the right.  Even if big gains aren’t realized in 2010 or even 2012, the message – hammered long and hard – will get through in time.

As for Governor Palin, her future after Juneau is more likely in the U.S. Senate than the White House.