I made my prediction earlier about how and why John McCain will win the electoral contest next month. In that analysis, I anticipate McCain will rack up 321 electoral votes to Obama’s 217.
I also cited a couple of updates (John Zogby, TownHall.com and Time.com) since the 23 September posting that sorta kinda validate my sooth-saying.
Now, Boston.com has published a really neat tool that allows readers to adjust anticipated demographic turnout and instantly see the results nationwide. I found in this some compelling reasons to believe my original prediction to be correct.
If voting turnout and preferences stay the same as in the 2004 election, McCain wins the electoral count 286-252. Let’s assume, however, that turnout by black voters is much higher than four years ago with an African-American at the top of the ticket. Push that turnout to 80% with 90% voting for Obama – both astoundingly high percentages – and Obama wins 311-227. Keep in mind that only 60% of blacks voted in 2004 – 78% for Kerry/Edwards.
But basing the outcome on that single demo is precarious. Recent polls and reporting indicate that as much as one-third of registered Democrats won’t vote for a black candidate.
According the the Boston.com software, a change of only 3% of white voters towards the Republican candidate moves the election back to McCain 273-265, and that’s WITH 80% black turnout, 90% voting Obama.
A level white voter turnout with a 5% shift to McCain moves the count 317-221. In fact, that count would hold should 80% of the African-American population vote, all for Obama.
The Boston.com website has a telling analysis of the racial demographic and the effect on this election (emphasis per original article):
Though diverse, WHITES still dominate America’s racial makeup. And because WHITES turnout disproportionately higher than other racial groups, they compose nearly 80% of the electorate. Adjust the turnout of other racial groups to absurdly high levels. Hypothetically, Obama’s candidacy could motivate minority racial groups to turnout and vote Democratic like never before. It looks like he can’t lose, right? Shift the WHITE voting preference slightly towards McCain. Now it looks like a Republican landslide.
Naturally, these aren’t the only demographics to consider, as are available on the Boston.com site.
Only big changes in the Protestant vote will make any real difference and it may be a tug of war between black and white churchgoers. Because of sheer numbers, even with philosophical differences, white protestants will likely carry that demographic.
The gender demo will be the most fun to watch. Males will likely vote more for the Republican, as they did in 2004, but women … there’s the Hillary (and now, Palin) Factor to consider.
Apparently, you haven’t been paying close attention to the last disastrous week for McCain.
Your skewed predictions are not taking into account the embarrassing interviews of Sarah Palin and ill-fated McCain strategic and tactical misfires.
Sarah Palin can barely put a sentence together, regurgitating the pablum with which her posse of Pygmalion-esque trainers are coaching her .
Her language is peppered with buzzwords, generalities and redundancies.
Besides McCain’s giant misstep regarding going to Washington to save the day and fallaciously/disingenuously putting his campaign on hold, he came off like an old angry man in the debate, trying to ignore Obama between bouts of condescension, bullying and dwelling on myopic details of foreign policy.
Nevermind the fact that dude couldn’t even look at Obama; he shows the fact that while he was proudly serving our country and bravely undergoing unimaginable horrors while boosting the morale of his fellow captives, he missed some critical developments in American history–the civil rights movement and all of the transformations of race relations that took place in his absence. He is in many ways like a computer-less Rip Van Winkle.
While you may be hoping that the Reagan democrats will collapse to their fear and racism and on election day be unable to vote for a “black man,” I am certain of a greater impulse in the American spirit–that which will keep us on a trajectory of growth rather than stagnation in a rapidly changing world.
Americans want to be powerful economically, politically, militarily, and culturally. The world is moving forward with GNPs of the developing nations growing at break-neck speed. We are rapidly being outpaced by India and China on many levels.
Sarah Palin has shown herself to have zero understanding of SPECIFICS regarding any international issues. Is “I live near Russia” really going to convince voters that she is ready? She will hold nuclear codes!! She will have to meet with world leaders. She will have to know more than 20% of world geography. She will need more than an elementary understanding of Islam.
Americans will see through her deer-in-the headlights beautiful, proud woman posture.
She fumbled this week and no amount of third quarter coaching can undo the damage.
She is a ROOKIE and there are no brownie points for trying.
If McCain doesn’t ditch her with a quick “thanks but no thanks,” his presidential ship has passed.
Wow, Golum. That’s a lot of space used purely to show your ignorance.
Palin is a rookie? Compared to… oh… the decades of experience of Barack Obama? HA! I will admit that Obama has much more experience in stealing money from public coffers and being an intellectual ghost.
You make an very interesting comment: “I am certain of a greater impulse in the American spirit–that which will keep us on a trajectory of growth rather than stagnation in a rapidly changing world.” I take it that you agree with John McCain that the economy is fundamentally sound. Good for you.
And how observant of you in noticing ” language is peppered with buzzwords, generalities and redundancies.” Oh, wait, you were talking about Sarah Palin, not Barack Obama?
OOOO…. Scooter, maybe you better pay a bit more attention to the only man in the history of the world to visit all 57 American states, and who believes he has better foreign policy credentials than others because he “actually lived overseas.”
And, Bucky, I never said I hoped “Reagan democrats will collapse to their fear and racism and on election day be unable to vote for a “black man,” I was merely citing an AP report.
Gee… you must be REALLY worried that the Plastic Man won’t win. I’ll consider the nerve as having been struck.
Thank you, come again.