Why (and How) McCain Will Win
September 22nd, 2008 § 6 Comments
UPDATE: Zogby says election could end in a landslide. 25 September
The presidential election might be a tight race now, but one of the country’s top pollsters thinks the race will end in an electoral landslide.
John Zogby, president of Zogby International, told a group of businesspeople today that it’s up to Democratic Sen. Barack Obama to convince voters to go with him. If he’s not successful, the country will likely vote for “a comfortable old shoe”, that being Republican Sen. John McCain.
26 September: This from TownHall.com
… And Time
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John McCain will win the presidency in November by a margin that will not only be certain, but possibly of landslide proportions.
Look at the electoral maps for the last two elections.
From 2000 to 2004, Bush/Cheney lost New Hampshire but picked up New Mexico and Iowa.
John Kerry won Pennsylvania by 2.5%, less than Al Gore. Kerry barely took New Hampshire four years ago – by 1.3% (the same margin by which Bush won in 2000). Wisconsin was even closer as Kerry picked it up by only .4% of the vote.
Gore won Ohio in 2000, Bush in 2004, the same scenario as in New Mexico.
In 2004, the Republican candidate for President did not lose a state that was won in 2000. Clearly, the trend is to RED.
All the Red States in 2004 will be Red this year. Those alone give McCain 286 Electoral votes, enough to win the White House. However, in addition to those, I believe three current toss-up states, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, could easily go Red. That’s an additional 35 electoral votes for the GOP, creating a virtual landslide.
There are quite a few “toss-up” states, but that number includes Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana and a few others that I believe are ultimately gonna move the way they did in the past.
So, I anticipate the following, although I think there is a real potential for even more red.
The voting public is not going to want to take a chance on someone as untested, inexperienced and unqualified as Barack Obama. Voters like their comfort and normally don’t take risks (Truman over Dewey, Johnson over Goldwater, Bush over Kerry). When they vote for a change, it’s usually from an incumbent that has really screwed up (Hoover, Ford, G.H.W. Bush (“read my lips”)). JFK was different in that he represented a new age. Barack Obama is no John F. Kennedy and John McCain is no George W. Bush.
Those states that went Republican in 2004, will do so again in 2008 and they will add to their number several other states because of the risk factor alone. This is going to be particularly true in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The chaos on Wall Street is likely to help McCain, not hurt him. Most investors are very conservative and don’t want to risk their money any more than they do their vote. Obama’s uncertainty and his infatuation with more and higher (and more “patriotic”) taxes is going to scare voters to the comfort of the GOP.
Throw in Obama’s far left agenda and the nasty campaign liberals are waging against the very core of American values, and it’s entirely possible that the Democratic candidate will get no more than 200 electoral votes in 2008.
Map images from Real Clear politics
Good job!
Update: Stats show Kerry leading Bush by the same numbers this week in 2004…
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